וַיָּקׇם מֶלֶךְ־חָדָשׁ עַל־מִצְרָיִם אֲשֶׁר לֹא־יָדַע אֶת־יוֹסֵף׃ (שמות א:ח) “A new king arose over Egypt who did not know Joseph.” (Exodus 1:8) In the coming days, we are going to experience an emotional roller coaster. There will be excruciating moments of torment each time there might appear to be a hiccup or some aspect of the hostage release deal stalls. And there will be moments of elation and joy as we watch hostages reunite with their families and loved ones. For 15 months, these hostages have endured unspeakable and unfathomable torture and psychological, mental, and physical anguish that will take a long time to process and heal. As of this writing, the deal that was finally reached on Wednesday has yet to be approved by Israel’s Government. It could result in the first hostages returning from captivity as early as Sunday. The proposed 42-day-long ceasefire will see a gradual step-by-step return of 33 hostages (a list of whom can be found here and whose families have been notified) in exchange for the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, and a detailed plan of ceasefire and withdrawal from the Gaza strip. Many questions and critiques of the deal have been raised in recent days and hours since it was announced, most notably that it will NOT include all 98 remaing hostages. These are important to explore and discuss. However, let it be said that despite all critiques, some valid and some not, I want to encourage us to think about this moment with cautious optimism. This is a moment to celebrate the hoped-for release of hostages and the beginning of the end of this war. Here is the basic proposal: The Phases of the Cease-Fire Agreement
  • 33 hostages, including women, children, the sick, and men over the age of 55 will gradually be released throughout a 42-day period;
  • The IDF will allow the Gazan population to cross over from the southern part of the Strip to the north (through the Netzarim Corridor) during the first phase of the cease-fire;
  • On day 16 of the agreement, negotiations will begin on the implementation of the second phase, which will include the release of 65 more Israeli hostages (the remainder of the total 98 still held in captivity);
  • As the deal progresses, the IDF will withdraw to a buffer zone inside the Gaza Strip, settling in a buffer-zone between the Gaza Strip’s population and the Israeli border communities.
That is, of course, if the agreement doesn’t implode before implementation. Already, there are rumblings and blaming for reneging and hesitating on the deal. Big Questions:
  1. Dead or Alive? With the publication of the names of the first 33 hostages to be returned, the significant detail that was not included and is unknown (at least publicly) is how many and which of the hostages are alive or dead. The Israeli security establishment estimates that at least 20 of the 33 are still alive, but not knowing the state of the hostages is heart-wrenching and putting the hostage families through additional psychological turmoil.
  2. How Much Is A Life Worth?per The agonizing formulaic decision as to how many Palestinian prisoners should be released in exchange for hostages will forever be an impossible crap shoot forcing mere mortals to play God in determining how much a life is worth. We’re all aware of the now infamous precedent set by the Gilad Shalit deal, which saw the release of 1027 prisoners in exchange for one soldier. In November 2023, over 100 hostages were returned at a “rate” of 1 hostage to 3 low-security-risk Palestinian prisoners. The current deal now will see 1,700 Palestinian prisoners freed in return for the first phase of the deal (700 terrorists, 250-300 of whom are serving life terms; 1,000 Gazans captured since October 8 in fighting in the Strip; and 47 rearrested prisoners from the 2011 Gilad Shalit deal). Should they be exiled to Europe or an Arab country where they are far from the action but can be international heroes and terrorist fundraisers, or should they remain in Gaza or the West Bank where they can both be closely monitored but also work to rebuild Hamas’s terrorist infrastructure and leadership? Also notable is which Palestinian prisoners will NOT be released. Marwan Barghouti, the jailed Intifada leader, who many have touted as a potential unifying Palestinian leader, will not be released now, nor will several other high profile prisoners, including the mastermind of the Pesach seder PArk hotel bombing in 2002 and the assassin of Minister Rechavam Zeevi in 2001.
  3. Why Now? Much ink has been spilled over the fact that this agreement is almost identical to the one negotiated in May, some 8 months ago, but for many reasons, was not finalized. Some justifiably lament the fact that so so so many lives could have been saved. The dozens of soldiers that have been killed in the last 8 months – including the nine young soldiers (5 from the Nachal brigade) who paid the ultimate price in the last 10 days – and hundreds of Palestinian lives could have been spared had the agreement taken effect then.  As Jon and Rachel Goldberg-Polin, parents of murdered hostage Hersh Goldberg-Polin, shared in a released statement:
“Our beloved son Hersh and so many other innocent civilians should have been saved long ago by a deal like this one, especially since the framework for today’s deal has been in place since May 2024—𝐖𝐞 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐠𝐠𝐥𝐞 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐟𝐚𝐢𝐥𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐨𝐟 𝐨𝐮𝐫 𝐥𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬. But today, we celebrate the impending reunifications of the 98 remaining hostages with their loved ones for whom we have been tirelessly advocating and so many of whom have become like family to us during this 467-day struggle.” Even those who claim this deal is not enough must acknowledge that the Middle East is a different place now than it was then. Hamas had not been as incapacitated as it is now. Yahiya Sinwar was still alive and running Hamas’ terror network. Hassan Nasrallah was still at the helm of Hezbollah. Syria was still intact. And Iran’s military capacity had not yet been severely weakened. Many accuse PM Netanyahu of perpetuating the war, preventing the deal by introducing new evidence in closing arguments, such as a contrived insistence on maintaining presence and control over the Philadelphi route and the Netzarim corridor. While arguably important, the timing and the strange, seemingly out-of-nowhere absolute insistence, many suspect that Netanyahu didn’t want the war to end to save his coalition and keep him out of jail. Biden – Trump – Netanyahu While those factors are certainly relevant, it is clear that the “Why Now?” question has a great deal to do with the ensuing inauguration of one Donald J. Trump. This agreement (should it hold) should definitely be seen as a victory for President Joe Biden, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and their foreign policy team’s gargantuan diplomatic efforts. President Biden tweeted, “…My diplomacy never ceased in their efforts to get this done – I will speak more about this soon.” And with that, there is no doubt that it would not have happened without the bullish directive given by President-elect Trump, who sent his envoy Steve Witkoff to Qatar and Israel and worked in tandem with Blinken’s team and regional partners Qatar and Egypt to bring it about. As Uri Misgav wrote in Haaretz: “… it was Trump, in his inimitable style. End the f***ing war, he ordered Netanyahu − end this f***ing war. Before he even came into office! Nothing remains of all the drivel about the Philadelphi route, the Netzarim corridor, ending Hamas’ rule, permanent settlement in Gaza or ’the Generals’ plan.’” It’s clear that it was convenient for Netanyahu to lean on Trump to push this through despite the far-right flank of his coalition’s (Ben Gvir and Smotrich) opposition to the deal and their insistence to continue fighting. Itamar Ben Gvir publicly gloated that he has repeatedly prevented the deal from going through a number of times. “In the last year, using our political power, we managed to prevent this deal from going ahead, time after time,” Ben Gvir declared. Of course, we were aware of this, but to see the smug, self-righteous grin on his face as he boasted his success is disgusting, especially with pictures floating around social media of Ben Gvir’s son visiting Yair Netanyahu in Miami and Betzalel Smotrich’s 21-year-old son studying in Yeshiva as both officials press firmly to send other people’s children to war. What made this deal happen is not necessarily Bibi’s fear of offending Trump or Steve Witkoff’s strong-arming. Rather, as Atlantic journalist Yair Rosenberg explained carrots, not sticks. “It’s not that Trump had a stick with which to beat Israel that Biden didn’t have,” he explained. “It’s that his presidency holds out the prospect of carrots that Biden would never offer. It was less the president-elect’s pressure than his potential promise that brought the Israeli far-right onside. With Trump, everything is a transaction, and for his would-be suitors—not just Israel, but also Hamas’s sponsors in Qatar—the Gaza cease-fire is a down payment.” We can’t know if Trump is doing this now because he has his heart set on a Noble Peace Prize or to put the jewel in the crown of the Abraham Accords with a Saudi deal. But it is possible that sometimes one just needs to speak clearly and firmly and do what has to be done without making everything terribly complicated. As a new President of the United States arises who may or may “not have known Joseph” (his predecessor) let us pray and hope that this deal does not collapse and that we can relish in the weepy reunions between hostages and their families. With hope, we hold in our hearts those who we have seen on posters and websites, on our bimas at services and in the empty places at our tables at Pesach and Rosh HaShanah, those whose names we recall when we sing Acheinu, those whose parents, siblings, and relatives have spoken at rally after rally and even visited some of our congregations. When we see them melt into the arms of their loved ones, breathe fresh air, feel the sun on their faces, and just taste the sweet taste of freedom, then we can begin together the long and arduous process of healing their bodies and souls.