On Tuesday, while much of our attention in the U.S. was focused on the elections, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant was fired for the second time. The first time he was fired was in March 2023, at the height of pro-democracy protests. Citizens immediately took to the streets in a vehement protest that caused PM Netanyahu to walk back his decision (it turns out he had never processed the paperwork to actualize the firing). No such luck this time. Protesters certainly took to the streets and blocked traffic on the Ayalon. They tried their best to cause a reversal, but this time, PM Netanyahu had his cake and ate it, too. Now Gallant will be relegated to the back benches of the Knesset. At the same time, the war rages on, and he is replaced by the uninspiring, inexperienced (in security matters) Netanyahu sycophant Yisrael Katz. Katz, who was warming the seat of the Foreign Minister, will be replaced by former Justice Minister Gideon Saar, who sold his birthright for a ministerial position and renounced any ounce of integrity he had when he broke with Benny Gantz and crawled back to Netanyahu’s government several weeks ago (after saying years ago that he would never enter a government led by Netanyahu), giving the coalition extra padding and stability. This dramatic political maneuver is nothing short of scandalous. Let it be said that the Prime Minister has the right to hire and fire his ministers, including his defense minister, during a War. On U.S. election day, the elections take a back seat to Netanyahu’s decision, which expresses the inevitable collapse of a long-time dysfunction in the relationship between him and Gallant. Gallant served as the responsible adult in the cabinet and was a popular leader who regarded the war differently. Netanyahu has a long history of dismissing and exiling anyone under him who is seen as being successful and popular and could pose a political threat to him. What made this scandalous was that Gallant’s dismissal was essentially the culmination of a number of different political strands, all designed for Netanyahu to hold on to his coalition and preserve his political power. What made this particularly chutzpahdik was that Gallant posed an ideological opposition to an exemption waiver for 7000 18–21-year-old Haredim from being drafted. Gallant maintained the mainstream Israeli position that, especially after hundreds of soldiers and reservists have been killed in this war and thousands wounded, the Haredi exemption from military service is no longer justifiable. Netanyahu also had to remove a bill to offer childcare subsidies for the ultra-Orthodox because it wasn’t going to pass. So, the dismissal of Israel’s most popular and trustworthy security maven is so transparently political that it stinks. The public may have been able to stomach the move had Netanyahu replaced him with someone with slightly more security street-cred (have I mentioned that this is in the middle of a war?!?!), such as Avi Dichter (a former Shin Bet director who currently serves as the Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development), or former Mossad Director Yossi Cohen – but Yisrael Katz? Gallant also is trusted by U.S. Secretary of State Blinken and Secretary of U.S. Defense Austin. Gallant alone is regarded as the responsible adult and trustworthy coordinator with the Biden administration. Then, the people of the United States of America elected Donald J. Trump, President, for his second non-consecutive term. Netanyahu’s dream has come true: Trump as President and the firing of Gallant (which came hours before the election results were in). There’s no question that Netanyahu preferred a President Trump over Harris, mainly because he feels that Trump will give him a green light to do whatever he wants. Suffice it to say that PM Netanyahu did not tarry in reaching out to congratulate the President-elect (in contrast to the 30 hours it took him to congratulate President Joe “I’m a Zionist” Biden). Obviously, Netanyahu is hoping that Trump will be sensitive to his attempt at maintaining power. While that might indeed be true, if there’s anything we can learn about DJT is that he is unpredictable, erratic, and acts in his own self-interest with little altruism and empathy. What can/should we expect from a Trump Presidency on Israel and The Middle East?
  1. Is it fair to predict that President Trump will turn a blind eye and give Netanyahu a green light with little restraint of the ultra-Nationalist agenda? This could include furthering the spread and support for West Bank settlements – including little restraint against settler violence – and not being able to stand up to those who regard this as the prophetic moment in which to begin a Gaza resettlement movement. PM Netanyahu is certainly banking on it, but one thing that we can be certain of is that President-elect Trump is unlikely to offer a similar embrace of Israel and Israelis as President Biden has done since October 7.
  2. End the War? “They said I would start wars, but I’m gonna end wars…” Trump said numerous times on the campaign trail. It is worthwhile to take him at his word despite the potential cynicism that he used this as a campaign ploy to woo Arab-American voters upset with the Biden-Harris approach to the war. He may have the leverage and lack the conventional diplomatic stateliness and process, and he may strong-arm what he regards as a necessity, namely an end to the war. This would be, indeed, a much-desired silver lining, and let us give praise when and if praise is due. We should acknowledge Trump for such things as recognition of the Golan Heights, moving the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem, and forging of the Abraham Accords. Despite his unrealistic and superficial attempt at closing the “deal of the century” between Israel and the Palestinians, ending the war would be welcome.
  3. Little Support for Palestinians During his first term, Trump completely defunded U.S. support for UNWRA closed Palestinian missions in the United States and sidelined Palestinian leadership. There are those Israelis and Israel supporters who laud this activity, but this was not helpful. If the ultimate goal is to end the conflict, humiliating and furthering the humanitarian crisis among the Palestinians is not the way to go. Without getting into a lengthy debate about UNWRA, it is clear that the international community is not doing enough to support the Palestinians, provide humanitarian aid, and prepare for the long road of rebuilding and regime change in Gaza and the West Bank – and it is unlikely that Trump will do much to move that agenda forward. While some laud this as an ostensible pro-Israel stance, let’s be clear that the more the Palestinians suffer, the more it is terrible for two reasons: a) because we are against human suffering (which shouldn’t be too controversial a position), and b) because a humanitarian crisis in Israel’s backyard will not end well for Israel in the long or short term.
  4. Abraham Accords Everyone looked to the Saudis as the logical and cathartic next step of the Abraham Accords. There’s no question that that would be a Geo-Political game changer, and it seemed as though we were making important progress before Hamas derailed it on October 7. At this current junction, it is clear that the Saudis will not entertain a serious normalization agreement without considerable concessions and progress with the Palestinians. That could motivate the Trump administration to regard the Palestinians as a necessary stepping stone towards the crown jewel of a Saudi deal. In that case, we can invoke the Talmudic dictum – מִּתּוֹךְ שֶׁלּא לִשְׁמָה בָּא לִשְׁמָה – (roughly translated as: “If one does something for the wrong reasons, they will eventually come to do it for the right reasons.”).
  5. Iran President-elect Trump boasts often of being tough on Iran, citing his tearing up of the JCPOA signed under the Obama administration. Many Israeli top brass security mayvens, who opposed the deal, have often said that tearing it up was the only thing worse than the deal. Trump’s campaign blamed President Biden for reinstituting funding to Iran, attempting to connect Biden with the funding of Hamas and Hezbollah as Iranian proxies. There’s no telling how the President-elect will approach the formidable challenge of what to do with Iran. He could give Israel a green light to bomb oil fields and nuclear reactors. He could threaten to do it himself. He could rest on his laurels that he successfully dealt with Qasem Soleimani (in January 2020), the Iranian commander of the Quds Force of the IRGC, and now it is someone else’s turn.
Of course, these points are all interconnected, and there will doubtless be new twists and turns as the war continues, Trump takes office, and Netanyahu pushes forth with few checks or balances, no impetus to end the war, and an embarrassingly low prioritization of bringing home the hostages. It is now time to continue pushing to uphold the institutions of democracy and the necessity of preserving human life – both for the hostages and their families, the residents of the North and all of Israel, and for the Palestinians. A turn on an old adage, where the pessimist says we’re living in the worst of all possibilities, and the optimist says, “You’re right; it can only get better from here.” Amen. Shabbat Shalom.